Vladimir Putin is now ‘better informed’ about the difficulties his forces face, US intelligence chief says; US expects ‘reduced tempo’ in fighting over winter
Vladimir Putin is now “better informed” about the difficulties facing his forces in Ukraine, the head of US intelligence has said. Speaking during a defence forum at the weekend, Avril Haines, the US director of national intelligence, indicated the Russian president was no longer as insulated from bad news arising from his invasion of Ukraine. Alluding to past assessments that Putin’s advisers could be shielding him, Haines said he was “becoming more informed of the challenges that the military faces”.
The US expects a “reduced tempo” in fighting to continue over the winter months, adding that there could be brighter prospects for Ukrainian forces in the coming months. “Most of the fighting right now around Bakhmut and the Donetsk area has slowed down with the withdrawal of Russia from the western Kherson area to the east of the river. And we expect that’s likely to be what we see in the coming months,” Haines said.
Heavy fighting continues around the key Donbas town of Bakhmut, where Russian forces have been struggling for six months to make minimal progress. Reports on social media suggested Ukrainian forces were making progress in operations on the east bank of the Dnipro River, opposite the recently liberated city of Kherson, after a reported amphibious landing on the Kinburn Spit last month. Russian forces have also intensified artillery attacks on the Kherson region since withdrawing from the western bank of the Dnipro.
A draft resolution is circulating at the United Nations for a Nuremberg-style tribunal to hold Russia accountable for crimes of aggression in Ukraine. Signs also indicate that US opposition to the proposal may be softening in the face of lobbying by the Ukrainian president, Volodymyr Zelenskiy. Beth Van Schaack, the US ambassador for global criminal justice, said this week: “So far, all of the [UN general assembly] resolutions on Ukraine have prevailed. The numbers have been quite strong.” The international criminal court has already started investigating war crimes in Ukraine but cannot prosecute the Kremlin leadership over the broader crime of aggression since Russia is not a signatory to the relevant statute.
Iran’s leadership has locked itself into a “vicious cycle” over protests and arming Russia, the US special envoy has said. “The more Iran represses, the more there will be sanctions; the more there are sanctions, the more Iran feels isolated,” Rob Malley, the US special envoy on Iran, told a conference in Rome. “The more isolated they feel, the more they turn to Russia; the more they turn to Russia, the more sanctions there will be, the more the climate deteriorates, the less likely there will be nuclear diplomacy. So it is true right now the vicious cycles are all self-reinforcing.” US intelligence chief Avril Haines said there was worrying evidence that Russia was seeking to deepen military cooperation with Iran.
Russia will not sell oil that is subject to a western price-cap even if it has to cut production, Russian deputy prime minister Alexander Novak said on Sunday. The G7 and Australia agreed to the price cap on Friday.
Opec+ agreed to stick to its oil output targets at a meeting on Sunday. Opec+, which comprises the Organisation of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (Opec) and allies including Russia, angered the US and other western nations in October when it agreed to cut output by 2m barrels a day, about 2% of world demand, from November until the end of 2023.
More than 500 Ukrainian localities remained without power on Sunday following weeks of Russian airstrikes on the electric grid, an interior ministry official said.
Ukraine is imposing sanctions on 10 senior clerics linked to a pro-Moscow church on the grounds they agreed to work with Russian occupation authorities or justified Moscow’s invasion, the security service said.
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